Bitcoin’s Resilience: Long-Term Holders Absorb Losses as Supply Dynamics Shift

On-chain data reveals a significant transformation in Bitcoin's market structure, with long-term holders increasingly absorbing losses and demonstrating steadfast conviction. As of late December 2025, approximately 6.7 million BTC—representing 23.7% of circulating supply—are held at a loss, marking the most sustained period of unrealized losses since November's market downturn. Notably, long-term holders now control 43% of this underwater supply, indicating a notable shift in ownership dynamics. This development suggests that seasoned investors are using the downturn to accumulate positions, effectively transferring supply from weaker hands to stronger, more patient holders. Such behavior historically precedes periods of market stabilization and eventual recovery, as long-term holders are less likely to sell during short-term price fluctuations. The increasing concentration of underwater coins in the hands of long-term holders reduces potential selling pressure, creating a more stable foundation for future price appreciation. This on-chain trend underscores the growing maturity of Bitcoin's investor base, where strategic accumulation during periods of uncertainty reflects confidence in the asset's long-term value proposition. As the market navigates this phase of unrealized losses, the resilience demonstrated by long-term holders provides a bullish signal for Bitcoin's underlying strength and future trajectory in the evolving digital asset landscape.

Bitcoin Losses Are Aging: Long-Term Holders Now Control 43% of Underwater Supply

On-chain data reveals a notable shift in Bitcoin's underwater supply dynamics, with long-term holders increasingly absorbing losses. Glassnode's latest report shows 23.7% of circulating BTC—approximately 6.7 million coins—currently held at a loss, marking the most sustained period of unrealized losses since November's market downturn.

The analytics firm tracks coins last moved at higher prices than current spot values. This 'HODLer absorption' pattern suggests conviction among veteran investors, as nearly half the loss-bearing supply now resides in strong hands rather than weak holders likely to capitulate.

Market observers note this redistribution mirrors historical accumulation phases, where patient investors gradually absorb supply from short-term traders during periods of price consolidation. The metric's persistence above 6 million BTC underscores both the depth of November's selloff and the growing resilience of Bitcoin's investor base.

Tether-Linked Buyers Acquire Peak Mining in $200M Deal Amid Regulatory Scrutiny

Tether's leadership circle has finalized a $200 million acquisition of Bitcoin mining operation Peak Mining through a network of interconnected companies. The sellers, Northern Data—a German AI data center firm predominantly owned by Tether—disclosed the November transaction in regulatory filings. The buyer consortium includes Highland Group Mining Inc., Appalachian Energy LLC, and 2750418 Alberta ULC, all tied to Tether executives Giancarlo Devasini and Paolo Ardoino.

This marks the second attempt to offload Peak Mining within months. An earlier $235 million agreement with Devasini-controlled Elektron Energy collapsed before reaching completion. The deal surfaces as European authorities investigate Northern Data for potential tax violations, with raids conducted across German and Swedish offices in September.

Deribit Options Expiry Signals Caution as Bitcoin Holds Near $88K

Deribit's $3.18B options expiry passed quietly Friday, with BTC hovering NEAR the $88K max pain level. Unlike previous expiry events, traders aren't actively pushing price toward this threshold—a sign of shifting market dynamics.

Positioning reveals defensive strategies: put options dominate below $91K while calls cluster above. The 0.8 put/call ratio suggests modest bullish sentiment, but liquidity concentrations at $85K puts reveal hidden anxiety about potential drops to $80K.

This expiry serves as prelude to next week's larger monthly/quarterly event. Market makers now treat options as insurance rather than speculative tools—a maturation echoing traditional derivatives markets.

Bank of Japan Hikes Rates to 30-Year High as Yen Weakens – The Catalyst for Bitcoin Rebound?

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75% on December 19, marking the highest borrowing costs in three decades. This historic move has triggered immediate speculation about its implications for global crypto markets, with bitcoin climbing 2.5% following the decision.

Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that accommodative financial conditions WOULD continue to support economic activity, but the central bank stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if needed. The rate hike arrives as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government pushes through a $117 billion stimulus package, more than half of which will be funded by additional debt issuance.

Japan's aggressive monetary tightening contrasts sharply with its expansive fiscal policies, raising concerns about the sustainability of its public debt, which already exceeds twice the size of its economy. Market participants are now watching whether this divergence will drive further capital flows into alternative assets like cryptocurrencies.

U.S. Senate to Review CLARITY Act in January 2026, Potentially Reshaping Crypto Regulation

The CLARITY Act, formally known as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, is poised to enter the Senate markup process in January 2026. This legislation, passed by the House in July 2025, seeks to resolve regulatory ambiguities by delineating oversight between the SEC and CFTC—assigning Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies to the CFTC as commodities, while investment tokens would fall under SEC jurisdiction.

Market participants have long grappled with fragmented oversight. The bill’s progression signals a pivotal shift toward legal predictability for digital asset firms. "Clear rules foster innovation," remarked crypto Czar David Sacks, underscoring the industry’s demand for structured guidance.

Senate committees will now refine the proposal before a full vote. The outcome could redefine compliance frameworks for exchanges and protocols alike, with implications for liquidity and institutional participation.

Bitcoin Demand Exhaustion Signals Bear Market Transition, CryptoQuant Reports

Bitcoin's market cycle has shifted decisively, with on-chain and derivatives data indicating demand exhaustion and the onset of bearish conditions. CryptoQuant's weekly report highlights weakening structural supports that previously fueled price rallies since 2023.

Three key demand waves—U.S. spot ETF launches, election-driven optimism, and corporate treasury adoption—have now been fully priced in. Since October 2025, demand growth has fallen below its long-term trend, removing a critical pillar of upward momentum.

Historical patterns suggest such demand rollovers typically mark the end of bullish phases, regardless of supply shocks or halving narratives. The report notes institutional and large-holder activity has particularly waned, though the analysis stops short of predicting severity or duration for the new market phase.